Caixin Securities recently released monthly comments in the food and beverage industry: twists and turns, and the performance is anchor.
The following is a research report Abstract:
Monthly review: In March 2024, the food and beverage sector continued to rebound with market emotional restoration and the stability of its performance. The food and beverage (Shen Wan) index rose 1.56%this month, and the 300 -Shenzhen 300 index was 0.95 percentage points.From the perspective of individual stocks, the differentiation is serious, and the market’s prominent preferences have fundamentals and performance targets.From the perspective of funds, in February, the food and beverage sector continued to be favored by northbound capital, and the northern -directional funds once again bought 7 billion yuan.
Economic data tracking: The macroeconomic is twists and turns.1) In the first quarter, residents’ disposable income and consumer expenditure were relatively stable, and the speed reduced after the epidemic.Q1 The per capita disposable income of the nation ’s residents is 11,539 yuan, an actual increase of 6.2%. Based on 2019, the annual compound growth rate is calculated. The CAGR five years after the epidemic is 4.83%.The five -year CAGR is 4.14%.2) March zero zero as a whole is slightly lower than expected.In March 2024, the total zero zero was 3.90 trillion, a year -on -year increase of 3.1%.Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods except for cars were 3496.8 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%, and the growth rate of high bases and seasonal factors fell significantly.The five -year Cagr was 4.45%in the five years after the Social Society, which was reduced by the pre -epidemic.3) March CPI as a whole is lower than expected, expected 0.3%, 0.70%before, and actual value of 0.1%.Under the seasonal influence, it was mainly affected by the price of food and travel services. In March, the CPI increased year -on -year and fell from the previous month.
Investment recommendations: In March, the market performance confirmed the preliminary view of the previous view “short -term recommendation pays attention to high -quality targets with high performance certainty and high valuation cost performance”. It is expected that it will continue to continue the main line of performance in April and go to the quarterly report.In terms of macroeconomic, the economic data shows a tortuous recovery trend. The growth rate of residents’ income has been reduced compared with the pre -epidemic, and the motivation of domestic demand is insufficient. Although the consumer confidence index has rebounded for several months, it is still below the critical value.In terms of industry dynamics, the batch price of high -end liquor Moutai has occurred in phased fluctuations, which has aroused market attention. The low -season price reduction is common, and the company’s regulation space is large, and there is no need to be too pessimistic in the short term.At present, the market’s emotional fluctuations are large, and the valuation of the food and beverage industry sector is still in the bottom area. The income and profit end of the major companies still have a relatively stable growth and have certain defense attributes.In combination with the market style, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to high -quality targets with high performance and high valuation.
The direction of stock selection in the medium and long -term periods is: 1) Absolutely subdivided lead at the bottom of the valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the liquor leader in Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, etc., beer leader Qingdao beer;Wait; 3) Growth target depending on valuation switching. It is recommended to pay attention to the casual snack sector Jinzi food, Yanjin shop, etc., the health product sector Dong Ajiao, Xianle health, etc.; 4) the cost improvement target, it is recommended to pay attentionwait.
Risk reminder: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; residents’ willingness to consume continues to decline; food safety issues.(Caixin Securities Huang Jing)
